Bovada Live Blackjack
As a blackjack player I know you can have up's and down's but when you play blackjack at Bovada its down every time you play. This game according to Bovada is not rigged and the cards are random but I have played so much with them I can pretty much know what cards I am going to get. I have been playing blackjack online at Bovada since the Bodog days (in the US). Being a software architect and developer for 20+ years I definitely have an intersecting interest in the game of blackjack and the coding that goes behind it.
1. I know Wizard of Odds said he personally certified the Blackjack at Bodog/Bovada to be fair, but is that just a win/loss percentage check after x hands?
2. Is the outcome of the hand predetermined by the pRNG? Meaning, it wouldn't matter how the hand is played if action is taken without busting, the winner is already known.
Seems to me you could pass the pRNG test for hands won/loss, but adjust or force outcomes on premium double down hands to make the blackjack 'handicapped' over long term.
Also:
- Yes I know this has been beaten to death, but I feel like analytically I am digging a little deeper here.
- Yes I play in land based casinos all the time and I realize online you are seeing many times over the number of hands you could see live.
- Yes I know it is not to Bovada's advantage to offer a game that is 'rigged'. However, it is definitely to their advantage to ensure their system cannot be beaten.
- Yes I know its a continuous shuffle, and card counting doesn't apply.
First, you'll need to post your data so that it can be analyzed and real numbers tests, such as what you're saying with the streaks/etc can be determined.
Next, your data will be questioned unless it's a video log of your screen while you play. People with grievances or whatever could/would fudge some of the numbers and possibly give bovada a scare, reputation hit, or whatever.
After getting a large, untamperable, sampling size then the real math can be worked on and proven/disproved. Until then I can agree with you all day but it won't actually account for much or mean anything unfortunately =/. You do seem like you have a fairly good idea of things too.
Administrator
A couple of random thoughts. If the win/loss/tie percentage is right on expectation, I'm not sure how much interest there would be in the journey, as far as crunching the numbers/labor cost. However, there have been member requests before for large data files of hands from a consistent source, and it might be very much appreciated if you shared yours. Hold off on doing that for the moment, though; it's just a thought.
Is the outcome of the hand predetermined by the pRNG?
No. What's random is how the cards are drawn. Depending on how it's programmed, either the entire virtual deck is shuffled randomly and then the cards are drawn off the top (which is CPU-intensive), or the cards are drawn randomly from an unshelled deck (which is much faster and simpler, and how I do it when I program simulations).
Administrator
No. What's random is how the cards are drawn. Depending on how it's programmed, either the entire virtual deck is shuffled randomly and then the cards are drawn off the top (which is CPU-intensive), or the cards are drawn randomly from an unshelled deck (which is much faster and simpler, and how I do it when I program simulations).
What is an 'unshelled deck'?
What is an 'unshelled deck'?
I think he means un-shuffled, imagine 13 cards in order (obv theres more than 13 in a deck), if the RNG picks 8 it equals an 8, 13 = K and so on.
In my programming I shuffle the deck and draw off the top, in theory its the same thing, but I like to mimic real life as much as possible.
Administrator
One thing I thought would be interesting is what if they made the win/loss %'s correct, but as the OP said the streaks are horrific (in both directions) so that you have losing streaks you simply can't sustain. That would keep the %'s correct but still be a 'rigged' game.
Bovada Live Dealer Blackjack
It occurs to me that if the overall medium term win/lose ratio is correct, but that they bias it towards player losing on high value hands, then wouldn't they have to counter balance that by rigging to pay out a larger proportion of hands where stakes are low? Wouldn't that give small scale betters an advantage.
Or do they do like VW and only un-rig it for audits.
Does Bovada Have Live Blackjack
Because we will probably never get in enough big bets to prove anything a side bet will have to do. I don't believe counting the % of winning hands VS losing hands is a valid test, especially flat betting small amounts.I always had a significant amount of disproportional big bets lose. For instance. Lets say I'm playing .50 VP then suddenly I decide to play a $100 hand of BJ. You guessed it, I have NEVER won a hand doing that.
When betting small $1-$5 It seems to play 'normal' of course you eventually lose. Anytime I have ever played bigger bets I go on the most horrible runs ever.
You use YOUR money to play.
You play a series of $1 bets, at some point I'll ask you to jump your bet to $100+.
I'll make you a side bet (my bet is that you will lose) and give you odds for an amount that puts you at a 1.5% advantage on each hand.
Anyone can quit wherever they wish.
Administrator
Whomever thinks this RTG BJ software is 100% random I have a +EV betting situation for you.
I'll make you a side bet (my bet is that you will lose) and give you odds for an amount that puts you at a 1.5% advantage on each hand.
Anyone can quit wherever they wish.
You must be pretty convinced it's VERY gaffed to offer that wager. I'll pass.
16:4119 Oct
A detailed report has appeared online which alleges serious security breaches at Bovada Poker, and claims that millions may have been siphoned from the site by some form of ‘super-user’ accounts coupled with the use of bots. This raises the question: is Bovada poker rigged?
The fantastical claims have been made by an anonymous team whose members “span industries including gaming, advertising, data mining, open source software development, security, and database solutions,” according to the report from dataminepoker.
They claim that:
“Based on all of the separate tests completed by our contracting team, it is evident that there are massive issues at Bovada Poker. There are issues with the number of multi large hands, collusion teams, and bots.”
Factors which they also allege they were able to exploit themselves on Bovada in trials afterwards, stating:
All of these situations were proven through data collection, analysis, and then using the techniques ourselves to increase our ability to win over average players.”
Online poker has always had more than its fair share of ‘paranoia’ among its players, usually based on the ‘luck’ factor which can see players run bad, suffer multiple bad beats, lose to ‘ridiculous’ plays by their opponents and then use the online community forums as a ‘sounding-off board’ for their tale of ‘rigged’ online poker-rooms.
Indeed, the DataMinePoker team describe such ‘paranoia’ as one of their starting points, saying:
As part of the initial research for this project, multiple online forums and gambling related social networks were combed for stories based on the potential unfairness of the Bovada Poker room. Based on the data collection of public posts within the past year, 1,461 separate stories of single or multi hand suspicious activity at Bovada Poker were found, collected, and verified.”
However, such ‘paranoia’ is not always mis-placed. The Ultimate Bet scandal of 2007 became the biggest in poker’s history when it was discovered that a ‘super-user’ account was being used, enabling the user to play in ‘God-mode’ with the ability to view other players hole cards, and winning millions of dollars from unsuspecting victims.
More recently, PokerStars investigated an alleged ‘bot ring’ emanating from Eastern Europe which was apparently exploiting their low-to-mid stakes PLO games, with many players being recompensed by the industry leader following their probe.
Whether or not these most recent allegations involving Bovada have any truth to them, the scale of the report – which DataMinePoker claim is only an initial public report, with secondary, more detailed, reports to come – is impressive.
After analyzing the Bovada Poker Mac and Windows applications, it was decided that these software applications were fairly secure and would require an advanced visual recognition system to collect the data required.'
Although extremely detailed, with mathematical models, hand-history reading scripts and coding (which are beyond this writer’s ken , but will doubtless be subject to intense scrutiny by many online aficionados of the game and its perceived unfairness) the core results of the report allege that:
- There is a massive problem where users are being edge-cased in big hands that they tend to lose a large pot over.
- Our team can easily confirm that Bovada Poker is a haven for collusion activity.
- It was determined that there are zero counter measures against bots and no front end way to try and detect bots/injectable systems.
Report states that:
These problems could be linked to a rogue employee(s) or hacker group that may have compromised the random number generator and shuffling algorithms used by the poker room software. It is also possible that this is a coincidental mistake made by the initial programmers of the random number generator/shuffling algorithms.'
A third possibility does not seem to have found any real substance during their ‘research’, the team stating:
Another, less likely possibility, is that Bovada is knowingly using their own software loophole to steal large amounts of user money,” as they later reveal that “From our base analysis…what occurred at Absolute/Ultimate Bet is not occurring on Bovada Poker in a noticeable way.”
The report also states that one of the difficulties they faced in compiling the report was the fact that Bovada is a private poker room, and they also point out:
Since Bovada Poker is not located within the United States, it is confirmed that the software has not readily been verified by the Nevada Gaming Commission or related American gaming control boards.”
That's something which they claim led them to initial suspicions that the poker room “may have potential security risks not checked by adequate control boards,” a belief which they allege their report confirms as having led to serious cheating issues and which – somewhat confusingly it may seem to many, “show that Bovada Poker is operating an unfair poker room (even while passing modern gambling software verification tests).”
They also claim their team is creating security on other online sites including alongside Bovada including:
- America’s Card Room
- BetOnline
- Sports Betting.ag
- Black Chip
- Carbon
Following these separate public reports, a large centralized report with access to all open source software tools, collection data, and image/video evidence will be released at once.
Whether this report turns out to contain any real issues of substance or not, the timing is not particularly good for the online gaming industry in general, coming in the wake of investigations into, and restrictions on, DFS and at a time when the big poker sites are doggedly clawing their way back into the US markets state-by-state.
It should be noted however that Bovada is, according to their own website, operated by Salmon River Technologies Ltd ('Salmon River Technologies Ltd', pursuant to a gaming license issued by the Kahnawake Gaming Commission, located in the Mohawk Territory of Kahnawake, Canada).
PokerTube will bring you responses from Bovada and any other interested parties as soon as they become available.